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Sometimes you make the right decision, sometimes you make the decision right.
- Denis Waitley
It is our choices that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities.
- J.K. Rowling
The key to making good decisions is to reflect on the past, focus on the present, and plan for the future.
Our lives revolve around decisions, encompassing various aspects such as finance, economics, commerce, relationships, and operations, all of which shape our future. In a way, as adults, we are all the sum of our decisions and luck in our lives. We don’t have much controls of our luck. The same is not true for our decisions. We all make a lot of them. According to a study attributed to researchers from Cornell University and published in the journal "Frontiers in Psychology," an adult makes between 15,000 to 35,000 decisions a day, the quantity dependent on age and personality. This study serves as a reminder of the prevalence and significance of decision-making in our existence. However, it's an activity often taken for granted. Many individuals, including the educated, may not realize that they often leave decision-making to chance or luck due to their belief systems and biases. What constitutes the anatomy of a decision, and how can you, as leaders, make effective ones?
In her book "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts," Annie Duke offers a simple yet elegant definition of a decision as "a bet on the future." We make decisions with the hope of attaining future value, which can range from instant gratification to long-term wellness. Decision-making is an exercise of thinking and prediction, starting with perceived facts, forecasting numerous uncertain possibilities, and concluding with a choice. Thinking involves brain activities that seek rationality and logic. However, the challenge lies in the fact that being rational is not as straightforward as it may seem. Belief systems, culture, behaviors, and perceived facts give rise to significant biases, sometimes concealed from awareness, thereby fundamentally clouding decisions.
In his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow," Professor Daniel Kahneman delineates brain activities into two fictional "systems": "System 1," or "Fast Thinking," describing the automatic mechanisms that prompt quick responses based on situational cues, and "System 2," or "Slow Thinking," which characterizes the more deliberate cognitive processes. Psychologists respectively refer to these as the "reflexive mind" and the "deliberate mind." He calls "System 1" or "the reflexive mind" as the "default mode," and "System 2" or "The deliberate mind" is referred to as the "customized mode." Consequently, our thinking and rational decision-making are profoundly influenced by the degree of calibration with each of these illustrative systems or minds. The challenge, therefore, lies in the need for leaders to regulate both the default and customized modes in the analytical component of decision-making.
Decisions are challenging not only due to the calibration difficulties of cognitive modes but also because they are made with incomplete information. In the predictive aspect of decision-making, leaders contend with both visible and hidden information, as well as luck, which lies beyond their control but that can be acknowledged, envisioned, or forecasted. In this context, leaders should adopt a probabilistic mindset, assigning appropriate weights to potential outcomes. While luck remains outside their influence, action based on available information or efforts to unearth hidden data should be rigorous.
Information may be either visible or hidden. If it's visible, it’s crucial to ensure that the decision making process takes into account all necessary data. However, many humble leaders acknowledge that obtaining all information before deciding is often unfeasible, as available information are treated as facts, which can represent perceived reality. Pursuing absolute truth or all-encompassing facts may lead to analysis paralysis. Conversely, when information is concealed, leaders must endeavor to uncover it or make reasonable assumptions before deciding. Thus, leaders typically make decisions based on imperfect information, regardless of its visibility.
Certain business leaders attribute successful outcomes to their skills, while attributing poor results to bad luck. Assessing the quality of a decision should prioritize its process over its outcome. A rigorous decision-making process resulting in an unfavorable outcome should be acceptable to any leader, as it may be attributed to unfortunate circumstances.
Such a robust decision-making process encompasses essential elements such as challenging ingrained belief systems, establishing constructive feedback loops, and engaging in mental exercises like forward and backward mental time travel. Belief systems, accumulated over time, often harbor hidden biases. Leaders must consciously identify flaws in their belief systems and biases, implementing mechanisms to refine their understanding of facts. Common biases, including but not limited to confirmation bias, overconfidence bias, and the bandwagon effect, must be addressed. Moreover, leaders should refrain from overly relying on present facts or data to assign high probabilities to decisions significantly impacting the future, recognizing the inherent uncertainty of future outcomes.
An effective strategy for mitigating biases involves soliciting feedback from a dissenting team comprising individuals possessing intellectual honesty and offering contrarian viewpoints. Mental techniques such as backcasting and premortem analysis are invaluable in rigorous decision-making. Backcasting involves envisioning the optimal outcome of a decision and retracing steps leading to the current dilemma, while premortem analysis entails anticipating adverse outcomes and strategizing to mitigate failure. These complementary mental contrasting processes enhance decision-making efficacy.
Decisions represent bets and actions for the future, rooted in a blend of luck, with concealed and transparent information, thus embodying a probabilistic essence. Taking place within an environment of uncertainty, decisions are crafted with the "deliberate mind," characterized by methodical, disciplined thought processes. Leaders tasked with pivotal decision-making roles must adeptly navigate their emotional biases, recognizing and mitigating these covert influences. Moreover, they must actively pursue high-quality feedback from diverse perspectives, including dissenting voices. It's imperative for leaders to methodically assess the role of luck in their decision outcomes, employing probabilistic analysis. By adhering to these principles, one can make decisions effectively and enhance the likelihood of positive outcomes.
Until we meet again, decide well!
Fal Diabaté
Managing Partner, Barra Advisory Group