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La seule limite à notre future réalisation sera nos doutes d'aujourd'hui.
- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Le futur n'est pas quelque chose dans lequel nous entrons. Le futur est quelque chose que nous créons.
- Leonard Ichiro Uchida
La technologie est géniale, mais vous devez l'utiliser plutôt que de la laisser vous utiliser.
- Prince
Les leaders qui étudient l'histoire des technologies de l'informatique et de la communication comprennent que devancer la prochaine courbe évolutive de la technologie confère un avantage compétitif significatif. Ces technologies sont des outils dont la maîtrise par des individus compétents peut positionner toute organisation pour un succès à long terme. L'évolution de la technologie est une force constante qui perturbe à la fois les personnes et les organisations, représentant l'ordre naturel du progrès. Dans cette note, je ferai un voyage dans le passé pour revisiter les changements clés dans les domaines de l'informatique et de la communication et leurs impacts sur la société. L'objectif est que les leaders d’entreprise tirent des leçons de ces changements technologiques et les exploitent pour naviguer à travers les changements à venir.
Voici les principaux changements dans les technologies de l'informatique et de la communication qui ont façonné le monde et propulsé notre avancement :
Années 1940 : L'Ère des Ordinateurs Centraux
Le concept d'ordinateurs modernes a subi une transformation spectaculaire avec l'introduction de la Machine de Turing. Au milieu des années 1930, Alan Turing, un brillant mathématicien et informaticien britannique, a formulé un concept théorique pour des machines informatiques. La machine de Turing utilisait un ensemble de règles (ou instructions) pour manipuler des symboles sur des bandes (stockage ou mémoire), posant ainsi les bases pour les avancées ultérieures. Au milieu des années 1940, des machines informatiques de la taille d'une grande salle, inspirées du modèle de la Machine de Turing ont émergées. Ces premiers précurseurs des ordinateurs centraux modernes comprenaient le Harvard Mark 1, l'ENIAC des États-Unis et le Colossus du Royaume-Uni. Construites avec des éléments électromécaniques, à tubes et électroniques, ces machines manquaient des capacités de partage de temps (time sharing) des ordinateurs centraux contemporains. Au début des années 1950, l'avènement des premiers ordinateurs centraux commerciaux tels que l'UNIVAC 1 et l'IBM 701 a inauguré une nouvelle ère, offrant des capacités de traitement améliorées et des fonctionnalités de partage de temps. Ces machines pouvaient être programmées à l'aide de cartes perforées et de langages comme Fortran et COBOL. En 1964, IBM a introduit sa série System 360, représentant la deuxième génération d'ordinateurs centraux avec des capacités de calcul améliorées, une allocation de ressources efficace et des fonctionnalités de partage de temps avancées. Des industries telles que l'énergie et la finance continuent d’utiliser les ordinateurs centraux dans les années 2020, avec des langages de programmation tels que ADA, FORTRAN et COBOL pour alimenter les opérations critiques.
Années 1960 : L'Ère des Ordinateurs Miniatures
Principalement en raison des coûts élevés, seules de grandes institutions telles que le milieu universitaire, la banque, l'énergie, l'armée et le gouvernement pouvaient se permettre des ordinateurs centraux. Le milieu des années 1960 a vu l'émergence des mini-ordinateurs initiée par la Digital Equipment Corporation, représentant les premiers pas vers la démocratisation de l'informatique. Bien que moins intensifs en calcul que les ordinateurs centraux, les mini-ordinateurs offraient une agilité accrue. Leur taille compacte et leurs coûts abordables les rendaient attrayants. Construits avec des transistors et alimentés par le système d'exploitation UNIX, ils étaient programmés en utilisant des langages traditionnels des ordinateurs centraux ainsi que des langages plus récents comme Pascal et BASIC. Le début des années 1970 a vu l'émergence de nouveaux langages de programmation tels que C, suivis de langages d’objet orientés comme C++. Ces langages ont joué un rôle crucial dans la diffusion des mini-ordinateurs et des machines ultérieures. La quête de solutions informatiques portables et agiles s'est intensifiée, culminant au milieu des années 1970 avec la sortie de l'Altair 8800 par MITS (Micro Instrumentation and Telemetry Systems), proposé sous forme de kit à construire soi-même. BASIC était parmi les premiers langages de programmation pour l'Altair 8800, suscitant une adoption généralisée et la formation de clubs informatiques.
Années 1980 : L'Ère de l'Ordinateur Personnel
La fin des années 1970 et le début des années 1980 ont été témoins de l'avènement des véritables ordinateurs personnels, notamment des produits tels que l'Apple 2, l'IBM PC et les clones de sociétés telles que Compaq, HP et Dell. Utilisant des circuits intégrés d'Intel et d'autres fabricants, ces ordinateurs personnels (PC) ont révolutionné l'informatique en démocratisant l'accès. Ils étaient basés sur l'architecture de la machine de von Neumann, avec une unité centrale de traitement (CPU), des registres/cache/mémoire/stockage, des jeux d'instructions pour la programmation, et des ports d'entrée/sortie. Ces machines modernes pouvaient être mises en réseau sur une base “voisin-a-voisin (peer-to-peer) via des connexions en chaîne et des protocoles de réseau nouvellement définis. De même, elles pouvaient se connecter aux réseaux téléphoniques via des ports de sortie, bien que la téléphonie à cette époque était de première génération (1G), offrant des services de communication vocale. Les systèmes d'exploitation populaires comprenaient des systèmes basés sur une interface en ligne de commande tels que MS-DOS (Microsoft - Disk Operating System) et des systèmes à interface graphique (GUI) tels que Mac OS, Windows et Linux. Les langages de programmation des PC allaient de C et C++ à Visual Basic en passant par des langages informatiques traditionnels tels que COBOL et FORTRAN. Cette ère a vu la distinction entre les architectures RISC (Reduced Instruction Set Computers) pour les machines à usage unique et CISC (Complex Instruction Set Computers) pour les machines à usage général. De plus, cette ère a été marquée par l'adoption généralisée de modèles architecturaux client-serveur pour le partage de ressources et d'applications de bases de données.
Années 1990 : L'Ère de l'Internet
En 1969, l'Agence pour les projets de recherche avancée de la défense (DARPA) des États-Unis a financé la création du Réseau de l'Agence pour les projets de recherche avancée (ARPANET), un précurseur de l'internet d'aujourd'hui. ARPANET comprenait initialement quatre nœuds, débutant à l'UCLA (Université de Californie à Los Angeles) , puis s'étendant à Stanford, Université de Californie (UC) à Santa Barbara et l'Université de l'Utah. Au fil des années, ARPANET s'est étendu pour inclure des universités telles que UC Berkeley, MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Harvard et Case Western Reserve. Le début des années 1970 a vu la création du premier e-mail. Avec le développement de protocoles de réseau comme TCP/IP, des modems PC, du World Wide Web et des navigateurs web, l'internet a été démocratisé au début des années 1990. La téléphonie est entrée dans sa deuxième génération (2G), offrant des capacités vocales et textuelles. Avec l'avènement de la Voix sur IP, les coûts téléphoniques ont diminué. L'accès à l'information est devenu plus accessible, et la communication de pair à pair a augmenté. La fin des années 1990 a été marquée par la montée en popularité de langages de programmation tels que Java de Sun Microsystems et Python.
Années 2000 : L'Ère du Cloud et du Mobile
Le cloud computing a gagné en importance au milieu des années 2000 avec l'introduction d'Amazon Web Services en 2006, suivie de Microsoft Azure en 2010, de Google Cloud et d'Ali Cloud en Chine. Cependant, bon nombre des fonctionnalités sous-jacentes du cloud computing ont leurs racines dans l'ère des ordinateurs centraux, notamment le partage temporel et de ressources, et la virtualisation des dispositifs informatiques et de communication tels que les machines virtuelles (VM). Des concepts tels que les conteneurs et les microservices sont des ajouts relativement récents. Le cloud représente essentiellement une mise en œuvre de l'informatique en grille ou de l'informatique utilitaire, où les ressources informatiques telles que le CPU, le stockage, le réseau, les bases de données et les applications logicielles sont accessibles via internet sur une base de paiement à l'utilisation. Ce changement a considérablement réduit le coût de l'informatique, du réseau et du stockage, éliminant ainsi le besoin d'acheter de grands serveurs.
Le lancement du premier iPhone d'Apple en 2007, couplé à des avancées significatives dans les réseaux et la téléphonie, a révolutionné l'accès à l'information. L'introduction des services téléphoniques de troisième (3G) et quatrième (4G) génération, offrant des capacités vocales, textuelles et vidéo, a amélioré les expériences de communication pour les utilisateurs et accéléré les changements dans les modèles commerciaux dans tous les secteurs.
Années 2010 : L'Analyse de Données et la Cybersécurité
Jusqu’en 2010, environ 1,6 milliard de smartphones avaient été vendus. Ces smartphones, associés à des plates-formes de médias sociaux telles que MySpace, Facebook, et plus tard YouTube, ainsi qu'à l'Internet des objets (IoT) ou aux machines industrielles et appareils domestiques connectés à l'internet, ont généré collectivement plus de 62 zettaoctets (ou 10 à la puissance de 21) de données d'ici 2020. Cet afflux massif de données a créé un terreau fertile pour l'analyse de données et l'émergence de l'apprentissage automatique, une branche de l'intelligence artificielle. Les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique, qui sont principalement statistiques, ont été développés pour permettre aux machines d'apprendre à partir de données, d'identifier des modèles et de faire des prédictions avec une précision relative. Les algorithmes populaires incluent la régression linéaire, les arbres de décision, les machines à vecteurs de support (SVM), les plus proches voisins (KNN) et les méthodes d'ensemble comme les forêts aléatoires.
La prolifération d'appareils et de machines connectés à l'internet a également donné lieu à des préoccupations en matière de cybersécurité, avec des menaces telles que les violations de données, les logiciels de rançon, les bugs zero-day et d'autres crimes liés aux réseaux devenant des cauchemars pour les responsables informatiques.
Le Web 3.0, la prochaine génération d'internet, met l'accent sur la décentralisation du réseau (calcul distribué), et la question du contrôle et de la propriété des données. Le concept a émergé à peu près en même temps que la technologie blockchain a été introduite à travers le célèbre whitepaper de Satoshi Nakamoto sur le Bitcoin en 2008. Les cryptomonnaies, les contrats cryptographiques, le calcul distribué et la décentralisation des données devraient continuer à façonner nos vies dans les années à venir.
Années 2020 : Intelligence Artificielle Générative et Robotique
Malgré la sophistication des cybercriminels, l'industrie informatique et des communications est restée résolue à renforcer les protocoles réseau, à éduquer les utilisateurs et à corriger les failles logicielles. Pendant ce temps, l'apprentissage automatique (ML) a continué à progresser et à gagner une acceptation plus large, avec des apprentissages supervisés, non supervisés ou par renforcement.
Le ML a finalement évolué vers l'apprentissage profond (DL), qui consiste à entraîner des réseaux neuronaux artificiels à apprendre des schémas, des représentations et des relations complexes pour effectuer des prédictions précises à partir de grandes quantités de données. Les réseaux neuronaux convolutionnels (CNN), les réseaux neuronaux récurrents (RNN) et les réseaux de mémoire à court et long terme (LSTM) figurent parmi les algorithmes d'apprentissage profond populaires utilisés pour construire des modèles. Des cadres tels que TensorFlow, PyTorch ou Caffe sont couramment utilisés pour déployer ces modèles, le langage de programmation Python émergeant comme le langage prédominant pour le développement de modèles. D'autres langages comme R, C++, Java et Julia trouvent également leur utilité parmi les développeurs en apprentissage automatique. Les GPU ou unités de traitement graphique sont principalement utilisés pour entraîner les modèles, tandis que les ordinateurs basés sur des CPU gèrent les tâches d'inférence pour vérifier leur precision.
À la fin de l'année 2022, le monde a été présenté à l'intelligence artificielle générative (GenAI) à travers le chatGPT d'OpenAI, également connu sous le nom de réseaux antagonistes génératifs (GAN). Les GAN fonctionnent avec deux sous-réseaux - le générateur et le discriminateur - s'engageant dans un processus itératif pour affiner les nouvelles données créées par le générateur. Cette boucle itérative se poursuit jusqu'à ce que les deux réseaux s'accordent sur la qualité des données. D'ici 2024, les modèles GenAI pourraient générer des sorties quasi parfaites en utilisant des données réelles provenant de sources ou modalités multiples, conduisant à l'émergence de l'IA multimodale. Cette approche englobe diverses modalités telles que le texte, la parole, l'image, l'audio et la vidéo, avec la capacité de générer des sorties dans ces domaines.
Le parcours vers GenAI a commencé avec la publication par Google du document "Attention Is All You Need" en 2017, introduisant "Transformers", une nouvelle architecture d'apprentissage profond. Les Transformers utilisent un mécanisme d'auto-attention pour traiter des séquences de texte en les convertissant en jetons et en leur attribuant des poids avant de les passer à travers chaque couche du réseau neuronal. Initialement appliqués au traitement du langage naturel (NLP), les Transformers se sont depuis étendus à la vision par ordinateur et à d'autres domaines, posant les bases pour des avancées dans la génération d'images et de sons. Les exemples phares de Transformers incluent le Transformer pré-entraîné génératif (GPT) d'OpenAI et le BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) de Google.
Année 2030 : Intelligence Artificielle Générale (AGI) et Métavers
L'intelligence artificielle (IA) est sur le point d'impacter la civilisation humaine dans tous les domaines de manière plus profonde que les tendances telles que les smartphones, le cloud computing, les médias sociaux et les big data. GenAI ne représente que le début de cette transformation. Alors que les modèles actuels de GenAI opèrent dans des contextes spécifiques et des paramètres prédéfinis, la prochaine étape de l'évolution de l'IA est l'intelligence artificielle générale (AGI). L'AGI vise à créer des réseaux neuronaux ou des modèles capables d'acquérir des connaissances similaires à celles des capacités humaines, voire de les dépasser. Ces agents posséderaient un contrôle interne et la capacité d'apprendre de nouvelles compétences dans différents contextes de manière autonome.
Le PDG de NVIDIA a prédit qu'en 2030, les agents AGI pourraient surpasser la plupart des humains jusqu'à 10% dans certains tests d'aptitude tels que l'examen du barreau ou les tests de logique. Une AGI complète sera capable d'accomplir des tâches similaires aux capacités cognitives humaines sans dépendre de données pré-entraînées. Cependant, parvenir à une AGI complète nécessitera une convergence entre des modèles techniques avancés, la biologie et la psychologie pour émuler les sensibilités humaines, la conscience et la compréhension contextuelle. Cette convergence conduira à ce qui est souvent appelé la "singularité", marquant un moment pivot dans la civilisation humaine.
Le développement de la réalité virtuelle (VR), de la réalité augmentée (AR) et de la réalité mixte (MR), combiné aux avancées dans les communications de nouvelle génération telles que la 5G ou la 6G, fer aune symbiose avec GenAI et AGI pour aider à diagnostiquer et à résoudre à distance, des problèmes complexes. Dans la prochaine décennie, ces technologies, combinées à l'IA, révolutionneront chaque industrie, y compris celle de la biotechnologie, les soins de santé, l'énergie et de la productivité des entreprises.
La biotechnologie, en particulier, bénéficiera de l'intégration de l'IA, donnant naissance à la biologie générative (GenBio). GenBio accélérera la découverte de nouvelles molécules, de processus biochimiques et de progrès biomédicaux basés sur l'IA. Tout en présentant des opportunités de progrès, GenBio nécessitera également des réglementations robustes régissant la gouvernance, la confidentialité des données et la gestion des risques. Les institutions publiques et privées doivent être proactives dans la mise en œuvre de ces réglementations pour naviguer dans les conséquences potentielles non intentionnelles de la croissance exponentielle de l'IA. Les leaders doivent aborder ce super-cycle technologique avec prévoyance et préparation pour les transformations profondes qu'il apportera.
L'évolution de la technologie représente une continuté d'avancées interconnectées des ordinateurs centraux aux smartphones et aux logiciels associés. Ces transformations ont apportés des changements positifs significatifs dans la civilisation humaine. Cependant, les bénéfices de chaque évolution technologique n'ont pas été également répartis parmi tous les membres de la société. L'intelligence artificielle (IA) représente le pinacle actuel de l'évolution technologique, sur le point d'impacter tous les aspects de nos vies et de nos entreprises. En tant que tels, les leaders doivent aborder la mise en œuvre des pratiques basées sur l'IA avec intention. Ils doivent être prêts et engagés non seulement à exploiter les avantages potentiels, mais aussi à aborder et à atténuer tout effet secondaire indésirable qui pourrait survenir.
Jusqu'à notre prochaine rencontre, restez au courant de l'avenir de la technologie
Fal Diabaté
Managing Partner, Barra Advisory Group
368 réponses
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