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Perspectives

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On Decision Making

Parfois, vous prenez la bonne décision, parfois vous rendez la décision juste.

- Denis Waitley

Ce sont nos choix décisionnels qui montrent ce que nous sommes vraiment, bien plus que nos capacités.

- J.K. Rowling

La clé pour prendre de bonnes décisions est de s’inspirer du passé, de se concentrer sur le présent et de planifier pour l'avenir.

Nos vies tournent autour des décisions, englobant divers aspects tels que les finances, l'économie, le commerce, les relations et les opérations, qui façonnent notre avenir. En quelque sorte, en tant qu'adultes, nous sommes tous le produit de nos décisions et de notre chance dans la vie. Nous n'avons pas beaucoup de contrôle sur notre chance. Il en va différemment pour nos décisions. Nous en prenons tous beaucoup au quotidien. Selon une étude attribuée à des chercheurs de l'Université Cornell et publiée dans la revue "Frontiers in Psychology", un adulte prend entre 15 000 et 35 000 décisions par jour, la quantité dépendant de l'âge et de la personnalité. Cette étude rappelle la prévalence et l'importance de la prise de décision dans notre existence. Cependant, c'est une activité souvent négligée. De nombreuses personnes, y compris les instruites, peuvent ne pas réaliser qu'elles laissent souvent la prise de décision au hasard ou à la chance en raison de leurs croyances et de leurs préjugés. Quelle est l'anatomie d'une décision, et comment pouvez-vous, en tant que leaders, en prendre efficacement ?
Dans son livre "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts," Annie Duke propose une définition simple mais élégante d'une décision comme étant "un pari sur l'avenir." Nous prenons des décisions avec l'espoir d'atteindre une valeur future, qui peut aller de la gratification instantanée au bien-être à long terme. La prise de décision est un exercice de réflexion et de prédiction, commençant par des faits perçus, prévoyant de nombreuses possibilités incertaines, et se concluant par un choix. La réflexion implique des activités cérébrales qui recherchent la rationalité et la logique. Cependant, le défi réside dans le fait que la rationalité n'est pas aussi évidente qu'il y paraît. Les systèmes de croyances, la culture, les comportements et les faits perçus donnent lieu à des biais significatifs, parfois dissimulés de la conscience, et brouillent fondamentalement les décisions.
Dans son livre "Thinking, Fast and Slow," le Professeur Daniel Kahneman délimite les activités cérébrales en deux "systèmes" fictifs : "Système 1," ou "Pensée Rapide," décrivant les mécanismes automatiques qui provoquent des réponses rapides basées sur des indices situationnels, et "Système 2," ou "Pensée Lente," qui caractérise les processus cognitifs plus délibérés. Les psychologues les appellent respectivement "esprit réflexif" et "esprit délibéré." Il appelle "Système 1" ; "l'esprit réflexif" le "mode par défaut," et "Système 2" ; "l'esprit délibéré" est appelé le "mode personnalisé." Par conséquent, nos réflexions et nos prises de décisions rationnelles sont profondément influencées par le degré de calibration avec chacun de ces deux systèmes illustratifs. Le défi réside donc dans le besoin pour les leaders d’équilibrer de manière appropriée ces systèmes pendant l’analyse de leurs prises de décision.
Les décisions sont difficiles non seulement en raison des challenges de calibrage des modes cognitifs, mais aussi parce qu'elles sont prises avec des informations incomplètes. Dans l'aspect prédictif de la prise de décision, les dirigeants doivent composer avec des informations à la fois visibles et cachées, ainsi qu'avec la chance, qui échappe à leur contrôle. Cependant, la chance ou la malchance peut être reconnue ou prévue dans la prise de décision. Dans ce contexte, les dirigeants devraient adopter une mentalité probabiliste, en attribuant des poids appropriés aux résultats potentiels. Alors que la chance reste en dehors de leur influence, l'action basée sur les informations disponibles ou les efforts pour dévoiler des données cachées devrait être rigoureuse.
Les informations peuvent être soit visibles soit cachées. Si elles sont visibles, il est crucial de veiller à ce que le processus de prise de décision prenne en compte toutes les données nécessaires. Cependant, de nombreux dirigeants humbles reconnaissent qu'obtenir toutes les informations avant de décider est souvent irréalisable, car les informations disponibles sont traitées comme des faits, qui peuvent représenter la réalité perçue. Poursuivre la vérité absolue ou chercher à avoir tous les faits dans le sens propre du terme, peut conduire à une paralysie de l'analyse. En revanche, lorsque les informations sont dissimulées, les dirigeants doivent s'efforcer de les découvrir ou de faire des hypothèses raisonnables avant de décider. Ainsi, les dirigeants prennent généralement des décisions basées sur des informations imparfaites, quelle que soit leur visibilité.
Certains dirigeants d'entreprise attribuent les résultats réussis uniquement à leurs compétences, tout en attribuant les mauvais résultats à la malchance. Évaluer la qualité d'une décision devrait prioriser le processus plutôt que le résultat. Un processus de prise de décision rigoureux aboutissant à un résultat défavorable devrait être acceptable pour tout dirigeant, car il peut être attribué à des circonstances malheureuses.
Un tel processus de prise de décision robuste englobe des éléments essentiels tels que remettre en question les systèmes de croyances enracinés, établir des boucles de rétroaction constructives et s'engager dans des exercices mentaux tels que le voyage mental vers l'avant et vers l'arrière dans le temps. Les systèmes de croyances, accumulés au fil du temps, abritent souvent des biais cachés. Les dirigeants doivent identifier consciemment les failles dans leurs systèmes de croyances et leurs biais, mettant en œuvre des mécanismes pour affiner leur compréhension des faits. Les biais courants, y compris mais non limités au biais de confirmation, au biais de sur-confiance et à l'effet d'entraînement, doivent être abordés. De plus, les dirigeants devraient s'abstenir de trop s'appuyer sur les faits ou les données actuels pour attribuer des probabilités élevées aux décisions ayant un impact significatif sur l'avenir, reconnaissant l'incertitude inhérente des résultats futurs.
Une stratégie efficace pour atténuer les biais implique la sollicitation des retours d'une équipe dissidente composée d'individus faisant preuve d'honnêteté intellectuelle et offrant des points de vue contraires. Des techniques mentales telles que le « backcasting » et l'analyse « pré-mortem » sont inestimables dans une prise de décision rigoureuse. Le backcasting consiste à envisager le résultat optimal d'une décision et à retracer les étapes menant au dilemme actuel, tandis que l'analyse pré-mortem consiste à anticiper les résultats défavorables et à élaborer des stratégies pour atténuer l'échec. Ces processus de contraste mental complémentaires renforcent l'efficacité de la prise de décision.
Les décisions représentent des paris et des actions pour l'avenir, enracinés dans un mélange de chance, d’informations cachées et transparentes, incarnant ainsi une essence probabiliste. Se déroulant dans un environnement d'incertitude, les décisions sont élaborées avec "l'esprit délibéré", caractérisé par des processus de réflexion méthodiques et disciplinés. Les leaders chargés de rôles décisionnels cruciaux doivent naviguer avec habileté à travers leurs biais émotionnels, reconnaissant et atténuant ces influences cachées. De plus, ils doivent rechercher activement des retours de haute qualité provenant de perspectives diverses, y compris des voix dissidentes. Il est impératif pour les dirigeants d'évaluer méthodiquement le rôle de la chance (ou de la malchance) dans les résultats de leurs décisions, en utilisant une analyse probabiliste. En respectant ces principes, on peut prendre des décisions de manière efficace et augmenter la probabilité de résultats positifs.
Jusqu'à notre prochaine rencontre, décidez bien!
Fal Diabaté
Managing Partner, Barra Advisory Group

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