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Le plus précieux de tous les capitaux est celui qui est investi dans les êtres humains.
- Alfred Marshall
L’économie est l’étude de la manière dont la société gère ses ressources limitées.
- Gary Becker
Le destin de toute entreprise est intrinsèquement lié à sa manière de répondre aux demandes et aux pressions de forces internes et externes. Les contraintes internes englobent divers facteurs, notamment les personnes, la culture, les stratégies, l'exécution de la stratégie, les ventes de produits et service, et enfin, de la capacité à maintenir une liste saine de clients fidèles. Parmi les forces externes les plus cruciales impactant le destin d'une entreprise se trouvent les tendances macroéconomiques, qui déterminent les contextes dans lesquels une entreprise naît, est nourrie et prospère. Ignorer les tendances ou les forces macroéconomiques lors de prises de décisions commerciales critiques invite à des risques imprudents et augmente la probabilité d'échec commercial.
Alors, qu'est-ce que la macroéconomie? Quelles sont les tendances minimales auxquelles vous, en tant que leader d'entreprise, devriez prêter attention pour augmenter la probabilité de succès de votre organisation? Pour rappel ou pour une mise à niveau, une définition simple de l'économie est qu'elle est l'étude des moyens de prendre des décisions qui trouvent des équilibres appropriés entre des besoins ou des désirs illimités et des ressources limitées (c'est-à-dire, biens, argent, temps, etc.). La macroéconomie est une branche de l'économie qui étudie comment fonctionne l'agrégat des économies. Elle concerne la vue globale de l'économie dans son ensemble.
Dans l'Antiquité, les habitants de l'ancienne Égypte (également connue sous le nom de Kemit) observaient la cyclicité de la nature à travers de nombreuses disciplines. La macroéconomie est l'une de ces disciplines intrinsèquement cyclique. Par exemple, il existe des périodes de paix et de prospérité contrastées avec des périodes de guerre, de dépression, voire de révolutions dans des pays économiquement faibles. Ces périodes sont respectivement appelées périodes de prospérité et de crise. Chaque pays connaît ces cycles, principalement en raison de deux facteurs; la politique monétaire qui inclut premièrement la gestion des taux d'intérêt et du flux monétaire, et deuxièmement la politique budgétaire qui inclut la taxation et les dépenses. Ces deux politiques sont corrélées à la gestion des dettes et des crédits des pays.
Compte tenu de la nature interdépendante de l'économie mondiale au 21e siècle, en tant que dirigeant d'entreprise, ces cycles et politiques qui les régulent vous affectent directement.
Il est important de noter que votre compréhension et votre étude attentive de ces cycles, surtout lorsqu'ils passent d'une phase à une autre, pourraient considérablement augmenter votre probabilité de succès.
Qu'est-ce que le crédit et la dette? L'investisseur en « hedge fund » Ray Dalio donne une définition élégante dans son livre "Principes pour faire face à un nouvel ordre mondial en mutation - Pourquoi les nations réussissent et échouent" et son livre électronique gratuit sur les principes économiques : "Le crédit est le pouvoir d'achat accordé en échange d'une promesse de remboursement de ce qui est la dette." Tous les économistes sérieux vous diront que contracter des dettes n'est pas le problème. Les vrais problèmes surviennent lorsque des actifs significatifs ne sont pas produits avec les crédits, et aussi l'incapacité à rembourser les dettes sensibles aux intérêts en temps opportun. C'est ce qui crée des problèmes dans les économies de la plupart des pays. Si le pays dans lequel vous opérez rencontre ces problèmes, votre entreprise en sera affectée.
Il existe de nombreuses façons pour les décideurs économiques de résoudre les problèmes de dette pour une économie relativement stable. Cependant, quatre solutions sont les plus courantes : (1) les mesures d'austérité, qui consistent à réduire les dépenses en coupant les programmes sociaux ; (2) la restructuration de la dette (ou pire, les défauts), qui ressemble à une forme de faillite ; (3) l'assouplissement quantitatif (QE), qui signifie essentiellement que la banque centrale "imprime de l'argent" ou "crée de l'argent" à partir de rien (non soutenu par l'or) et l'injecte dans l'économie ; et (4) le transfert d'argent, qui implique la redistribution de l'argent des riches aux pauvres ou vice versa. Chacune de ces solutions a des impacts économiques pour les objectifs visés. Par exemple, le QE stimule la croissance mais est inflationniste, tandis que les mesures d'austérité et la restructuration/de faillites réduisent les dettes mais sont déflationnistes.
Des termes macroéconomiques tels que le produit intérieur brut (PIB), l'inflation, les taux de croissance, et des ratios tels que le PIB par habitant et le ratio dette-revenu doivent être compris par les dirigeants d'entreprise.
Le PIB est un terme économique désignant la valeur monétaire annuelle ou trimestrielle de tous les biens et services finaux produits dans un pays. Il revêt une importance particulière car il sert d'indicateur clé de la taille économique et de la santé d'un pays. Il éclaire la production économique ainsi que la consommation et les dépenses gouvernementales au cours d'une période spécifique. Un PIB plus élevé reflète une économie plus saine. Les économistes utilisent divers ratios liés au PIB pour évaluer le bien-être économique d'un pays. Parmi ceux-ci, le PIB par habitant (PIB divisé par la population totale) mesure le niveau de vie dans un pays, tandis que le taux de croissance du PIB signifie le pourcentage de changement du PIB d'une période à une autre, indiquant une expansion ou une contraction économique.
Le taux d'intérêt représente le coût de l'emprunt d'argent, exprimé en pourcentage du montant principal emprunté. Les taux d'intérêt à court terme sont principalement déterminés par les banques centrales. Aux États-Unis, la Réserve fédérale (la Fed) établit un "taux d'intérêt cible", également appelé "taux des fonds fédéraux", qui sert de référence pour les institutions financières telles que les banques commerciales pour emprunter de l'argent entre elles. Les banques commerciales fixent ensuite les taux d'intérêt à long terme, impactant toute personne empruntant de l'argent pour divers investissements.
En fonction des objectifs de la banque centrale, tels que la lutte contre l'inflation, la déflation, l'atteinte du plein emploi ou la stimulation de la croissance économique, le taux d'intérêt cible influence significativement l'ensemble de l'économie. Par conséquent, c'est un indicateur crucial auquel les dirigeants d'entreprise doivent prêter une attention particulière.
Les dirigeants d'entreprise n'ont pas besoin d'être des économistes. Cependant, ils (ou elles) doivent étudier et comprendre les termes économiques clés, les cycles et les tendances pour mieux appréhender les facteurs externes qui affectent leurs entreprises. Cet exercice important aiderait les entrepreneurs à réduire les risques d'échec commercial et à améliorer leurs taux de réussite.
Jusqu'à notre prochaine rencontre, continuez à prêter attention à la macroéconomie, le moteur primaire du capitalisme.
Fal Diabaté
Managing Partner, Barra Advisory Group
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